2026 Pacific Saury Season: Low Catch, Small Fish, Price Pressure

The 2026 Pacific saury season has opened weakly. Catches are at their lowest since 2023, fish are smaller than expected, and some vessels are staying at sea longer to fill their holds. Japan's pre-season resource estimate came in at just 429,000 tonnes — down 61% year-on-year.

A strengthening El Niño (over 90% probability of a very strong event this autumn/winter) adds further uncertainty to migration patterns and fishing ground locations, which are already further offshore.

For buyers, the real issue isn't just volume — it's size. Smaller fish limit pack specs and production options. With low availability and higher operating costs, suppliers expect prices to rise in coming weeks.

Buyer takeaways:

• Larger fish expected from October — buyers targeting bigger sizes should plan around this.
• 2025 carry-over stock (smaller grades) is still available for those who can flex on specs.
• Confirm sizes and schedules early with suppliers to avoid being locked out.
• Discuss alternatives — flexibility on specifications can unlock supply.

The next few weeks will show whether this is a temporary early-season dip or a wider trend. Buyers with regular saury programs should monitor catch volumes, fish size, and raw material pricing closely.